Rumpelstiltskin
0xfb1b…a11d · Joined March 8, 2025
Rumpelstiltskin has made $26K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #6,437 all time by profit, with 688K shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 20, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$26K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 688K
- Portfolio value
- $18K
- Profit this month
- −$501
- Win rate (last 193 closed)
- 78%
How Rumpelstiltskin has traded
Across all 193 closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 150 (78%) ended in profit and 43 in a loss, for +$51K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 59%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $17K together, the biggest is “Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?” (Yes) at 25% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
No · entry 19% · closed Apr 1, 2026
+$9,784
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Yes · entry 36% · closed Aug 31, 2025
+$4,162
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?
Yes · entry 66% · closed Sep 4, 2026
+$3,609
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
No · entry 24% · closed Apr 1, 2026
+$2,827
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Yes · entry 77% · closed Jan 1, 2026
+$2,164
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
Yes · entry 72% · closed Aug 1, 2025
+$2,019
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
No · entry 52% · closed Jan 1, 2026
+$1,889
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Yes · entry 54% · closed Mar 31, 2026
+$1,675
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
Yes · entry 86% · closed Sep 4, 2026
+$1,490
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
No · entry 90% · closed Feb 1, 2026
+$1,412
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Yes · entry 87% · closed Mar 1, 2026
−$1,293
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 45% · closed Apr 1, 2026
−$1,067
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Yes · entry 91% · closed Feb 28, 2026
−$996
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
No · entry 27% · closed Nov 18, 2025
−$807
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Yes · entry 45% · closed Jan 24, 2026
−$649
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 27% · closed Oct 13, 2026
−$604
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?
No · entry 20% · closed Jun 17, 2026
−$478
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?
Yes · entry 97% · closed Mar 16, 2026
−$466
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?
Yes · entry 76% · closed Mar 31, 2025
−$460
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 18% · closed Sep 4, 2026
−$393
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes · entry 68%, now 86% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,171
+$869 P&L
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 52%, now 22% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,083
−$2,846 P&L
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 76%, now 82% · ends Dec 16, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,892
+$128 P&L
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
No · entry 73%, now 87% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,486
+$245 P&L
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 68%, now 92% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,033
+$266 P&L
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 80%, now 98% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$989
+$183 P&L
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?
No · entry 93%, now 98% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$977
+$48 P&L
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes · entry 40%, now 36% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$929
−$118 P&L
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?
No · entry 76%, now 86% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$796
+$91 P&L
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
No · entry 50%, now 47% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$680
−$44 P&L
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 77%, now 44% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$627
−$477 P&L
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 27%, now 14% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$364
−$302 P&L
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
No · entry 32%, now 22% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$337
−$164 P&L
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
No · entry 27%, now 63% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$277
+$160 P&L
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 18%, now 96% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$211
+$171 P&L
Recent trades
Bought Yes at 76%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
Bought No at 52%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?
Bought No at 71%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Bought Yes at 30%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?
Bought No at 92%
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
Bought Yes at 57%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?
Bought Yes at 64%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
Bought Yes at 32%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?
Bought Yes at 36%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?
Sold Yes at 78%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Bought Yes at 92%
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?
Bought Yes at 92%
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?
Bought Yes at 59%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?
Sold Yes at 10%
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
Sold Yes at 1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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