Skip to content
WhaleSays
Open Polymarket

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by odds

The highest-priced market in “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by” is December 31 at 94% (+0.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of October 31 at 42%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

Start trading on PolymarketAffiliate link · 18+ · trading involves riskView this market on Polymarket

Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
December 31October 31October 30October 29

All 7 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by” is a Polymarket event with 7 open outcomes. December 31 has the highest price at 94%, ahead of October 31 at 42%. December 31 is up 0.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 3.6 points over the past week. Traders have put $1.0M through the event so far, including $35K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

All whale trades

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 94% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.06 (American −1686): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.06 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.5 points.

Related odds

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

  • No release by October 3159%
  • October 2717%
  • October 2911%

$357K traded · $23K in 24h

Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?

  • 50%+>99%
  • 55%+87%
  • 60%+35%

$26K traded · $9,623 in 24h

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

  • $1.75–$2.0T31%
  • $1.5–$1.75T20%
  • $2.0–$2.25T19%

$2.4M traded · $111K in 24h