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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on odds

Polymarket traders make No release by October 31 the favorite for “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on” at 59% (−6.7 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of October 27 at 20%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 3Oct 26
No release by October 31October 27October 29October 26

All 8 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on” is a Polymarket event with 8 open outcomes. No release by October 31 leads at 59%, ahead of October 27 at 20%. No release by October 31 is down 6.7 points over the last 24 hours and up 43 points over the past week. Traders have put $358K through the event so far, including $22K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 1, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Who is the favorite in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
No release by October 31 is the favorite at 59%, followed by October 27 at 20% and October 29 at 10%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders give No release by October 31 a 59% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.71 (American −141): $1 staked on No release by October 31 returns about $1.71 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 6.7 points.

Related odds

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

  • December 3195%
  • October 3042%
  • October 3141%

$1.0M traded · $37K in 24h

Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?

  • 50%+98%
  • 55%+84%
  • 60%+35%

$26K traded · $9,630 in 24h

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

  • $1.75–$2.0T30%
  • $2.0–$2.25T20%
  • $1.5–$1.75T20%

$2.4M traded · $117K in 24h