MrBauer
0xedfb…3c1c · Joined February 2, 2026
MrBauer is down $10K in realized results on Polymarket, with 193K shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 24, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- −$10K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 193K
- Portfolio value
- $849
- Profit this month
- −$4,801
- Win rate (last 120 closed)
- 81%
How MrBauer has traded
Across all 120 closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 97 (81%) ended in profit and 23 in a loss, for +$8,364 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 50%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 103 of the 120 are about crypto, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 6 largest open positions listed below, worth $849 together, the biggest is “Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?” (Yes) at 46% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?
No · entry 18% · closed Sep 3, 2026
+$3,687
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
No · entry 19% · closed Sep 4, 2026
+$2,617
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?
Yes · entry 39% · closed Sep 7, 2026
+$1,699
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 39% · closed Sep 3, 2026
+$858
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
Yes · entry 38% · closed Sep 1, 2026
+$629
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?
Yes · entry 32% · closed Sep 4, 2026
+$223
UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Petr Yan · entry 70% · closed Oct 24, 2026
+$106
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
Up · entry 42% · closed Aug 27, 2026
+$78
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Down · entry 54% · closed Aug 27, 2026
+$76
XRP Up or Down - August 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Up · entry 52% · closed Aug 27, 2026
+$74
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 8, 2026?
No · entry 35% · closed Sep 4, 2026
−$924
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 7, 2026?
No · entry 48% · closed Sep 4, 2026
−$919
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?
No · entry 52% · closed Sep 4, 2026
−$816
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?
No · entry 10% · closed Sep 4, 2026
−$725
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Down · entry 52% · closed Aug 27, 2026
−$204
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
Yes · entry 46% · closed Sep 4, 2026
−$195
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?
Yes · entry 10% · closed Sep 4, 2026
−$175
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Up · entry 53% · closed Aug 27, 2026
−$91
XRP Up or Down - August 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Down · entry 54% · closed Aug 27, 2026
−$71
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Down · entry 52% · closed Aug 27, 2026
−$71
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 29%, now 18% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$389
−$259 P&L
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 25%, now 42% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$165
+$65 P&L
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?
Yes · entry 11%, now 20% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$89
+$39 P&L
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?
Yes · entry 23%, now 38% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$75
+$30 P&L
Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?
Yes · entry 23%, now 17% · ends Nov 3, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$72
−$28 P&L
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?
Yes · entry 25%, now 29% · ends Oct 29, 2026
Recent trades
Bought Movsar Evloev at 46%
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)
Bought Movsar Evloev at 53%
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)
Bought Movsar Evloev at 53%
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)
Sold Petr Yan at >99%
UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Bought Petr Yan at 69%
UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Bought Rizvan Kuniev at 45%
UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Bought Losene Keita at 1%
UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
Bought Losene Keita at 43%
UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
Bought Yes at 23%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?
Bought Yes at 23%
Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?
Bought Yes at 25%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?
Bought Yes at 11%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?
Bought No at 25%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 0.5%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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