Waterfall has made $18K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #9,000 all time by profit, with 2.7M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$18K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 2.7M
- Portfolio value
- $12K
- Profit this month
- +$1,748
- Win rate (last 197 closed)
- 80%
How Waterfall has traded
Across the 197 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 157 (80%) ended in profit and 40 in a loss, for −$13K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 75%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $11K together, the biggest is “Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?” (No) at 25% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?
No · entry 23% · closed Aug 1, 2026
+$5,928
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
Yes · entry 11% · closed Jul 26, 2026
+$4,532
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?
Yes · entry 50% · closed Jul 9, 2026
+$2,236
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?
No · entry 79% · closed Jul 25, 2026
+$2,204
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribed" during his next YouTube video?
No · entry 84% · closed Aug 8, 2026
+$1,930
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?
Yes · entry 58% · closed Oct 26, 2025
+$1,776
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Yes · entry 82% · closed Jun 9, 2026
+$1,713
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
Yes · entry 73% · closed Dec 7, 2025
+$1,448
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?
Yes · entry 40% · closed Jul 24, 2026
+$1,437
Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 60 and 65 million views on week 1?
Yes · entry 86% · closed Nov 29, 2025
+$1,341
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3?
Yes · entry 99% · closed Mar 10, 2026
−$11K
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
Yes · entry 92% · closed Sep 3, 2026
−$8,267
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
No · entry 86% · closed Dec 7, 2025
−$6,504
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?
Yes · entry 93% · closed Sep 3, 2026
−$6,006
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?
Yes · entry 85% · closed Mar 10, 2026
−$3,926
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
Yes · entry 82% · closed Dec 13, 2025
−$3,366
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
Yes · entry 62% · closed Sep 2, 2026
−$3,035
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 11AM ET
Down · entry 98% · closed Dec 8, 2025
−$2,938
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
No · entry 70% · closed Jun 29, 2026
−$2,741
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3?
No · entry 92% · closed Mar 10, 2026
−$2,581
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?
No · entry 98%, now >99% · ended Oct 26, 2026
$2,803
+$43 P&L
Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?
No · entry 83%, now 96% · ends Dec 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,516
+$206 P&L
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 70%, now 59% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,297
−$247 P&L
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 69%, now 59% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,053
−$194 P&L
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 20, 2026?
No · entry 88%, now 95% · ends Nov 21, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$878
+$62 P&L
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 44%, now 48% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$871
+$64 P&L
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?
No · entry 54%, now 53% · ends Jun 30, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$529
−$16 P&L
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?
No · entry 95%, now >99% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$456
+$20 P&L
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 74%, now 85% · ends Dec 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$400
+$50 P&L
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 40%, now 48% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$340
+$53 P&L
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026?
Yes · entry 35%, now 45% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$318
+$65 P&L
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?
No · entry 89%, now 91% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$235
+$6 P&L
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 25, 2026?
No · entry 99%, now >99% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$233
+$1 P&L
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 31, 2026?
No · entry 99%, now >99% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$233
+$1 P&L
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 1, 2026?
No · entry 99%, now >99% · ends Nov 2, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$232
+$0 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 75%
Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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