2026 MN-01 House Race odds
Polymarket traders make Brad Finstad (R) the favorite for “MN-01 House Election Winner” at 63% (+3.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Jake Johnson (D) at 37%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 2 outcomes right now.
All 2 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 63%
Brad Finstad (R)63%24h +3.5 ptsOdds 1.59US −170Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 37%
Jake Johnson (D)37%24h −3.5 ptsOdds 2.74US +174Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“MN-01 House Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Brad Finstad (R) leads at 63%, ahead of Jake Johnson (D) at 37%. Brad Finstad (R) is up 3.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 1.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $102K through the event so far, including $9,372 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
Melody626 bought No at 62%
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?
SnapElectionAvoider sold No at 79%
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?
SnapElectionAvoider bought No at 71%
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in MN-01 House Election Winner?
- Brad Finstad (R) is the favorite at 63%, followed by Jake Johnson (D) at 37%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?
- Polymarket traders give Brad Finstad (R) a 63% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.59 (American −170): $1 staked on Brad Finstad (R) returns about $1.59 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 3.5 points.
