2026 Louisiana Senate Race odds
Polymarket traders make Julia Letlow (R) the favorite for “Louisiana Senate Election Winner” at 91% (−0.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Jamie Davis (D) at 10%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 2 outcomes right now.
All 2 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 91%
Julia Letlow (R)91%24h −0.5 ptsOdds 1.10US −953Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 10%
Jamie Davis (D)10%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 10.53US +953Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Louisiana Senate Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Julia Letlow (R) leads at 91%, ahead of Jamie Davis (D) at 10%. Julia Letlow (R) is down 0.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 2.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $129K through the event so far, including $3,905 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
ted11 bought Yes at 92%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
BigRabbit bought No at 11%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
inrock30 bought Yes at 90%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
MORGANVIII bought Yes at 90%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
legioncre bought Yes at 89%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Gaditima bought No at 93%
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
SitsToPee sold No at 92%
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
TrangNgo bought Yes at 94%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
SitsToPee sold Yes at 93%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
QMG-CORE bought No at 94%
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Who is the favorite in Louisiana Senate Election Winner?
- Julia Letlow (R) is the favorite at 91%, followed by Jamie Davis (D) at 10%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
- Polymarket traders give Julia Letlow (R) a 91% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.10 (American −953): $1 staked on Julia Letlow (R) returns about $1.10 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.5 points.
