Will the US confirm that aliens exist by? Live odds
The highest-priced market in “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by” is December 31 at 4% (−1.3 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of October 31 at 0.4%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 2 outcomes right now.
All 2 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 4%
December 314%24h −1.3 ptsOdds 27.78US +2678Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 0.4%October 310.4%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 222.22US +22122Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Will the US confirm that aliens exist by” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. December 31 has the highest price at 4%, ahead of October 31 at 0.4%. December 31 is down 1.3 points over the last 24 hours and down 1.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $75M through the event so far, including $380K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
zuker14 sold Yes at 4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
tianjiyuyunzhilu bought No at >99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
StarryPath bought No at 96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
charliealmanack bought No at 96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Wise-Jack bought No at 96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Wise-Jack bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
YK32 bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Large-Gherkin bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Major-Chopsticks sold No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
yeslabby bought Yes at 5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
THE-BBC bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
bigdihhh888 bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
joebmx bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Krejza68 bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
THE-BBC sold No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
bigdihhh888 bought No at 96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
afdafdafdafdafd bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Hedgeh0g bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
THE-BBC sold No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
THE-BBC bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
yeslabby bought Yes at 5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
afdafdafdafdafd bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
afdafdafdafdafd bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
18in36out bought No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
yeslabby bought Yes at 5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
ladida33 sold No at 95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Jiale sold No at 96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
bosshog sold No at 96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA sold No at >99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
Avamax bought No at 96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 4% in this market, which is decimal odds of 27.78 (American +2678): $1 staked on Yes returns about $27.78 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.3 points.
