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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 3% and No at 97% for “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026” (Yes +0.2 pts in the last 24 hours).

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Chance of Yes over the last 30 days

Price of a Yes share.

Sep 26Oct 25

Yes and No odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 3% and No at 97%; Yes is up 0.2 points over the last 24 hours and up 0.3 points over the past week. Traders have put $5.3M through the market so far, including $5,372 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 3% (decimal odds 30.77, American +2977) and No at 97% (decimal odds 1.03, American −2977). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
When does this market close?
The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.

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