Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Nothing at 97% and Something at 3% for “Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto” (Nothing unchanged in the last 24 hours).
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Chance of Nothing over the last 30 days
Price of a Nothing share.
Nothing and Something odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Nothing97%97%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.03US −3233Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Something3%3%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 33.33US +3233Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Nothing is priced at 97% and Something at 3%; Nothing is unchanged over the last 24 hours and down 1.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $18K through the market so far, including $0 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame.
Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.
If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify.
Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- What are the odds on Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto?
- Polymarket currently prices Nothing at 97% (decimal odds 1.03, American −3233) and Something at 3% (decimal odds 33.33, American +3233). Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
