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Satoshi's identity be proven by odds

The highest-priced market in “Satoshi's identity be proven by” is December 31 at 3% (unchanged in the last 24 hours). Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The leading outcome right now.

Sep 26Oct 26

All 1 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Satoshi's identity be proven by” is a Polymarket event with 1 open outcomes. December 31 has the highest price at 3%. December 31 is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 0.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $2.0M through the event so far, including $108 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 3% in this market, which is decimal odds of 39.22 (American +3822): $1 staked on Yes returns about $39.22 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

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