Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31 odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 2% and No at 98% for “Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31” (Yes unchanged in the last 24 hours).
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Chance of Yes over the last 30 days
Price of a Yes share.
Yes and No odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Yes2%2%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 50.00US +4900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- No98%98%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.02US −4900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 2% and No at 98%; Yes is unchanged over the last 24 hours and down 0.4 points over the past week. Traders have put $24K through the market so far, including $0 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.
If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify.
Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 2% (decimal odds 50.00, American +4900) and No at 98% (decimal odds 1.02, American −4900). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
