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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by? Live odds

The highest-priced market in “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by” is June 30, 2027 at 42% (+0.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of December 31 at 25%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 2 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
June 30, 2027December 31

All 2 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. June 30, 2027 has the highest price at 42%, ahead of December 31 at 25%. June 30, 2027 is up 0.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 7.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $4.4M through the event so far, including $12K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 42% in this market, which is decimal odds of 2.38 (American +138): $1 staked on Yes returns about $2.38 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.5 points.

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