cmarx has made $1,948 in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #53,811 all time by profit, with 286K shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 17, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$1,948
- All-time volume (shares)
- 286K
- Portfolio value
- $15K
- Profit this month
- −$1,344
- Win rate (last 116 closed)
- 75%
How cmarx has traded
Across all 116 closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 87 (75%) ended in profit and 29 in a loss, for +$14K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 67%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 48 of the 116 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 14 largest open positions listed below, worth $15K together, the biggest is “Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?” (Yes) at 43% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
No · entry 31% · closed Sep 1, 2026
+$1,729
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No · entry 69% · closed Jul 11, 2026
+$1,247
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 68% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$1,221
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
No · entry 74% · closed Jul 4, 2026
+$1,155
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Yes · entry 40% · closed Aug 5, 2026
+$1,091
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 45% · closed Jun 15, 2026
+$975
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 49% · closed Jun 15, 2026
+$934
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Yes · entry 34% · closed Jul 10, 2026
+$924
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Yes · entry 80% · closed Sep 30, 2026
+$884
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Yes · entry 37% · closed Jun 15, 2026
+$836
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 67% · closed Aug 9, 2026
−$1,030
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
No · entry 77% · closed Jun 13, 2026
−$619
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
No · entry 55% · closed Jun 20, 2026
−$599
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2?
Yes · entry 81% · closed Mar 19, 2026
−$435
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
No · entry 53% · closed Apr 14, 2026
−$390
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Yes · entry 67% · closed Jun 12, 2026
−$364
Will Trump say "New York" during Taoiseach events?
No · entry 69% · closed Mar 23, 2026
−$305
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?
No · entry 55% · closed Mar 18, 2026
−$284
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Yes · entry 68% · closed Jun 18, 2026
−$267
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
No · entry 71% · closed Apr 14, 2026
−$256
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Yes · entry 57%, now 54% · ended Jun 3, 2026
$6,432
−$421 P&L
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 10%, now 9% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,105
−$233 P&L
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Yes · entry 32%, now 86% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,581
+$984 P&L
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
No · entry 65%, now 58% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,226
−$140 P&L
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Yes · entry 32%, now 39% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,040
+$176 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
No · entry 15%, now 14% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$772
−$71 P&L
Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Yes · entry 54%, now 30% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$750
−$595 P&L
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
No · entry 94%, now >99% · ended Nov 4, 2026
$391
+$23 P&L
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Yes · entry 76%, now 37% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$185
−$195 P&L
Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Yes · entry 64%, now 32% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$160
−$159 P&L
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Yes · entry 21%, now 20% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?
Yes · entry 45%, now 24% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$47
−$43 P&L
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 63%, now 16% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$40
−$118 P&L
Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Yes · entry 21%, now 18% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Recent trades
Bought Yes at 76%
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Bought Yes at 21%
Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Bought Yes at 50%
Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Bought Yes at 55%
Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Bought Yes at 45%
Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?
Bought Yes at 54%
Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Bought Yes at 64%
Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Bought No at 4%
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
Bought No at 4%
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
Bought No at 15%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Bought No at 74%
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?
Bought No at 74%
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?
Bought No at 74%
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?
Bought No at 76%
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?
Sold No at 60%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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