zthunderfury
0xc682…17bb · Joined October 27, 2025
zthunderfury has made $31K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #5,598 all time by profit, with 6.5M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$31K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 6.5M
- Portfolio value
- $259K
- Profit this month
- −$5,587
- Win rate (last 197 closed)
- 69%
How zthunderfury has traded
Across the 197 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 136 (69%) ended in profit and 61 in a loss, for +$21K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 77%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $235K together, the biggest is “Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?” (Yes) at 16% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 2% · closed Oct 8, 2026
+$6,648
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
No · entry 93% · closed Aug 17, 2026
+$5,949
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 61% · closed Feb 28, 2026
+$5,673
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 35% · closed Jun 15, 2026
+$4,215
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 68% · closed Jun 22, 2026
+$3,384
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
No · entry 89% · closed Oct 16, 2026
+$3,075
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
No · entry 89% · closed Oct 1, 2026
+$2,948
Maduro out in 2025?
No · entry 92% · closed Jan 1, 2026
+$2,930
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
No · entry 90% · closed Mar 4, 2026
+$2,898
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No · entry 97% · closed Oct 5, 2026
+$2,355
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
No · entry 85% · closed Jan 7, 2026
−$16K
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
No · entry 49% · closed Mar 1, 2026
−$10K
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No · entry 94% · closed Oct 24, 2026
−$6,064
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
No · entry 69% · closed Jun 22, 2026
−$3,898
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
No · entry 57% · closed Jun 15, 2026
−$2,735
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
No · entry 39% · closed Apr 23, 2026
−$2,722
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
No · entry 56% · closed Feb 28, 2026
−$2,598
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Yes · entry 28% · closed Aug 4, 2026
−$2,401
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
No · entry 91% · closed Jan 3, 2026
−$2,242
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
No · entry 64% · closed May 29, 2026
−$1,876
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes · entry 89%, now 92% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$37K
+$838 P&L
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No · entry 84%, now 81% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$37K
−$1,459 P&L
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
No · entry 96%, now 99% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$29K
+$690 P&L
Iran leadership change by December 31?
No · entry 87%, now 86% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$28K
−$492 P&L
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 82%, now 75% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$21K
−$2,085 P&L
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 92%, now 92% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$21K
−$162 P&L
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
No · entry 81%, now 95% · ends Nov 20, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$9,622
+$1,423 P&L
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 90%, now 94% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,548
+$357 P&L
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No · entry 87%, now 91% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,239
+$347 P&L
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 50%, now 80% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,262
+$2,712 P&L
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No · entry 94%, now 98% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,033
+$262 P&L
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
No · entry 73%, now 90% · ends Jan 4, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,955
+$1,286 P&L
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 97%, now 97% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,560
+$3 P&L
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No · entry 93%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,918
+$128 P&L
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
No · entry 96%, now 97% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,752
+$60 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 92%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Bought No at 92%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Bought No at 99%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Sold Yes at 79%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Sold Yes at 77%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Sold Yes at 77%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Sold Yes at 77%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Sold Yes at 77%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Sold Yes at 77%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Bought No at 85%
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Bought No at 92%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Bought Yes at 71%
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Bought Down at 83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Bought Yes at 71%
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Bought Yes at 71%
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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