Virginia Senate Election: Turnout odds
Polymarket traders make 3.5M-3.75M the favorite for “Virginia Senate Election: Turnout” at 45% (+11 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 4M+ at 36%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 8 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 3.5M-3.75M45%45%24h +11 ptsOdds 2.20US +120Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 4M+36%36%24h +13 ptsOdds 2.78US +178Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3.25M-3.5M29%29%24h +12 ptsOdds 3.45US +245Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3.75M-4M9%9%24h −7.8 ptsOdds 11.11US +1011Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2.5M-2.75M6%6%24h −0.5 ptsOdds 16.67US +1567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3M-3.25M5%5%24h +2.1 ptsOdds 18.87US +1787Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <2.5M4%4%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 22.47US +2147Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2.75M-3M3%3%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 33.33US +3233Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Virginia Senate Election: Turnout” is a Polymarket event with 8 open outcomes. 3.5M-3.75M leads at 45%, ahead of 4M+ at 36%. 3.5M-3.75M is up 11 points over the last 24 hours and down 3.4 points over the past week. Traders have put $38K through the event so far, including $5,378 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
vinii bought No at 83%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 2,500,000 and 2,750,000?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in Virginia Senate Election: Turnout?
- 3.5M-3.75M is the favorite at 45%, followed by 4M+ at 36% and 3.25M-3.5M at 29%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?
- Polymarket traders give 3.5M-3.75M a 45% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.20 (American +120): $1 staked on 3.5M-3.75M returns about $2.20 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 11 points.
