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Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations odds

The highest-priced market in “Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations” is The Debut at 92% (−1.9 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Wild Horse Nine at 88%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

Market ends:

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Prices refresh about every 30 minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If “Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards” resolves Yes, $20 returns about $21.68.

Price per share
92.25¢
Implied chance
92%
Shares
21.68
Payout if it wins
$21.68
Profit if it wins
+$1.68
Odds
1.08 · −1190

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back The Debut on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 14:19 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 14Nov 2
The DebutWild Horse NineClub KidFjord

All 18 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 18 outcomes

Long shots that pay the most

The 3 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

Where this market stands

“Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations” is a Polymarket event with 18 open outcomes. The Debut has the highest price at 92%, ahead of Wild Horse Nine at 88%. The Debut is down 1.9 points over the last 24 hours and up 2.3 points over the past week. Traders have put $83K through the event so far, including $6,968 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on March 15, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 92% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.08 (American −1190): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.08 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.9 points.

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