2026 New Mexico Senate Race odds
Polymarket traders make Ben Ray Luján (D) the favorite for “New Mexico Senate Election Winner” at >99% (+0.8 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Larry Marker (R) at 0.6%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 2 outcomes right now.
All 2 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- >99%
Ben Ray Luján (D)>99%24h +0.8 ptsOdds 1.00US −24900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 0.6%
Larry Marker (R)0.6%24h −0.8 ptsOdds 166.67US +16567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“New Mexico Senate Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Ben Ray Luján (D) leads at >99%, ahead of Larry Marker (R) at 0.6%. Ben Ray Luján (D) is up 0.8 points over the last 24 hours and up 2.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $33K through the event so far, including $155 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
MrNoItAll bought Yes at 98%
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
Woeful-Wrinkle-Approach bought Yes at 96%
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
nicoco89 sold Yes at 96%
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
nicoco89 bought Yes at 93%
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
VorpalQuark bought No at 93%
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in New Mexico Senate Election Winner?
- Ben Ray Luján (D) is the favorite at >99%, followed by Larry Marker (R) at 0.6%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
- Polymarket traders give Ben Ray Luján (D) a >99% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.00 (American −24900): $1 staked on Ben Ray Luján (D) returns about $1.00 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.8 points.
