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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026 odds

Polymarket traders make SpaceX the favorite for “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026” at 68% (+3.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Anthropic at 28%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
SpaceXAnthropicOpenAIStripe

All 12 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Largest IPO by market cap in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 12 open outcomes. SpaceX leads at 68%, ahead of Anthropic at 28%. SpaceX is up 3.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 4.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $6.7M through the event so far, including $2,976 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 2, 2027.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.

This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.

A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX is the favorite at 68%, followed by Anthropic at 28% and OpenAI at 0.4%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Polymarket traders give SpaceX a 68% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.48 (American −208): $1 staked on SpaceX returns about $1.48 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 3.0 points.

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