occasionalAwareness
0x8a4c…532b · Joined December 8, 2021
occasionalAwareness has made $1.1M in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #166 all time by profit, with 103M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 23, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$1.1M
- All-time volume (shares)
- 103M
- Portfolio value
- $237K
- Profit this month
- −$28K
- Win rate (last 199 closed)
- 70%
How occasionalAwareness has traded
Across the 199 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 139 (70%) ended in profit and 60 in a loss, for +$371K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 58%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $231K together, the biggest is “Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?” (No) at 24% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
No · entry 27% · closed Nov 12, 2024
+$150K
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?
Yes · entry <0.1% · closed Jan 11, 2023
+$138K
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
No · entry 0.4% · closed Aug 1, 2024
+$77K
Was Trump hacked?
Yes · entry 1% · closed Jan 20, 2025
+$72K
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?
Yes · entry 2% · closed Dec 8, 2022
+$65K
Republican House and Democratic Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms?
Yes · entry 26% · closed Nov 9, 2022
+$64K
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Yes · entry 92% · closed Aug 6, 2024
+$59K
Biden wins the Popular Vote?
No · entry 60% · closed Nov 12, 2024
+$59K
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Yes · entry 1% · closed Nov 16, 2024
+$58K
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on October 1, 2022?
No · entry 1.0% · closed Feb 8, 2023
+$51K
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?
No · entry 50% · closed Jan 10, 2023
−$137K
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
No · entry 49% · closed Nov 11, 2024
−$82K
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Yes · entry 0.5% · closed May 19, 2025
−$78K
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?
No · entry 93% · closed Jan 3, 2023
−$64K
Was Trump hacked?
No · entry >99% · closed Jan 20, 2025
−$63K
Republican House and Democratic Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms?
No · entry 73% · closed Nov 17, 2022
−$60K
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?
No · entry 58% · closed Nov 20, 2024
−$57K
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 0.1% · closed Nov 7, 2024
−$54K
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on October 1, 2022?
Yes · entry 98% · closed Sep 9, 2022
−$50K
Will the Brooklyn Nets make the 2022 NBA playoffs?
Yes · entry 84% · closed Apr 13, 2022
−$43K
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
No · entry 90%, now 91% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$55K
+$303 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Yes · entry 44%, now 78% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$36K
+$15K P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Yes · entry 37%, now 59% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$33K
+$12K P&L
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
No · entry 91%, now 97% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$27K
+$1,858 P&L
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Yes · entry 48%, now 28% · ends Jan 2, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$26K
−$19K P&L
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
No · entry 48%, now 33% · ends Jan 2, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$13K
−$6,334 P&L
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Yes · entry 30%, now 35% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,694
+$1,278 P&L
Plague pandemic in 2026?
No · entry 95%, now 98% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,071
+$271 P&L
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 16%, now 18% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,451
+$806 P&L
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 94%, now 97% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$5,952
+$175 P&L
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
No · entry 48%, now 38% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,687
−$720 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
Yes · entry 11%, now 18% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,394
+$826 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
Yes · entry 7%, now 4% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,241
−$1,482 P&L
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
No · entry 12%, now 19% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,204
+$804 P&L
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 4%, now 2% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,359
−$1,678 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 19%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Sold No at 98%
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
Bought No at 48%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Bought No at 48%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Bought No at 48%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Bought No at 48%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Bought No at 48%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Bought No at 48%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Bought Yes at 57%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Bought Yes at 57%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Bought Yes at 57%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Sold Yes at 78%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Bought Yes at 69%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
More to explore: full leaderboard, live whale trades, events with live odds and how to start.