How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026? Live odds
Polymarket traders make 20 to 34 the favorite for “How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026” at 94% (−0.1 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 35 to 49 at 4%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 4 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 20 to 3494%94%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 1.07US −1450Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 35 to 494%4%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 28.17US +2717Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 50 or more2%2%24h −0.9 ptsOdds 50.00US +4900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Fewer than 20<0.1%<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 4 open outcomes. 20 to 34 leads at 94%, ahead of 35 to 49 at 4%. 20 to 34 is down 0.1 points over the last 24 hours and up 18 points over the past week. Traders have put $71K through the event so far, including $640 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
Mataty1 bought Yes at 77%
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
KnowsAllOfIt sold No at 86%
Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
KnowsAllOfIt bought No at 70%
Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
SnapElectionAvoider bought No at 47%
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
How this market resolves
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Who is the favorite in How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- 20 to 34 is the favorite at 94%, followed by 35 to 49 at 4% and 50 or more at 2%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
- Polymarket traders give 20 to 34 a 94% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.07 (American −1450): $1 staked on 20 to 34 returns about $1.07 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.1 points.
