DancewithRisk has made $32K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #5,336 all time by profit, with 3.5M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$32K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 3.5M
- Portfolio value
- $31K
- Profit this month
- +$11K
- Win rate (last 198 closed)
- 68%
How DancewithRisk has traded
Across the 198 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 135 (68%) ended in profit and 63 in a loss, for +$13K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 44%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $24K together, the biggest is “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?” (Yes) at 15% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
No · entry 22% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$4,669
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?
No · entry 55% · closed Jan 1, 2026
+$3,306
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?
Down · entry 15% · closed Jun 30, 2026
+$2,947
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
Yes · entry 51% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$2,357
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
No · entry 80% · closed Jan 1, 2026
+$1,759
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes · entry 83% · closed Jul 6, 2026
+$1,610
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Yes · entry 71% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$1,282
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 49% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$1,035
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?
No · entry 23% · closed Oct 18, 2025
+$977
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
No · entry 77% · closed Jul 1, 2025
+$917
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Ethereum all time high before 2026?
No · entry 56% · closed Oct 11, 2025
−$3,476
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
No · entry 33% · closed Sep 16, 2026
−$2,884
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No · entry 84% · closed Jan 13, 2026
−$2,307
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
No · entry 73% · closed Oct 22, 2026
−$1,057
US military action against Iran by Sunday?
No · entry 86% · closed Jun 22, 2025
−$860
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?
Yes · entry 10% · closed Oct 1, 2026
−$798
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
Yes · entry 3% · closed Oct 7, 2026
−$635
Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?
No · entry 62% · closed Sep 30, 2026
−$559
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
No · entry 60% · closed Apr 28, 2026
−$465
Will Hyperliquid hit $50 in 2025?
No · entry 17% · closed Oct 11, 2025
−$442
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Yes · entry 40%, now 70% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,612
+$1,577 P&L
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?
Yes · entry 54%, now 62% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,445
+$287 P&L
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
No · entry 33%, now 25% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,333
−$799 P&L
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
No · entry 80%, now 71% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,988
−$254 P&L
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Yes · entry 43%, now 38% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,570
−$197 P&L
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?
Yes · entry 16%, now 14% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,512
−$315 P&L
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Yes · entry 57%, now 63% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,420
+$128 P&L
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
No · entry 76%, now 80% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,405
+$68 P&L
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?
Yes · entry 17%, now 21% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,388
+$248 P&L
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Yes · entry 29%, now 28% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,338
−$20 P&L
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?
No · entry 71%, now 72% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,113
+$27 P&L
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?
Yes · entry 15%, now 19% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,018
+$237 P&L
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
No · entry 38%, now 37% · ends Dec 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$911
−$33 P&L
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
No · entry 62%, now 39% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$777
−$466 P&L
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?
No · entry 92%, now 95% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$671
+$24 P&L
Recent trades
Bought Yes at 63%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Sold Yes at 64%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Bought Yes at 57%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Sold Yes at 20%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold Yes at 20%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold Yes at 20%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold Yes at 20%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Bought Yes at 20%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Bought Yes at 20%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Bought Yes at 20%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Sold No at 96%
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?
Bought Yes at 58%
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?
Sold Yes at 22%
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?
Sold Yes at 24%
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?
Sold Yes at 25%
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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