Measles cases in U.S. in 2026 odds
The most likely target still in play is “Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?”, which Polymarket traders price at 98% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), followed by “↑4.75k” at 98%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 9 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 98%
↑5k98%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.02US −6150Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 98%↑4.75k98%24h −0.4 ptsOdds 1.03US −3900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 90%↑5.5k90%24h −4.3 ptsOdds 1.11US −885Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 81%↑6k81%24h −1.0 ptsOdds 1.24US −413Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 60%↑6.5k60%24h −3.5 ptsOdds 1.68US −147Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 39%↑7k39%24h −8.0 ptsOdds 2.60US +160Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 18%↑7.5k18%24h −5.0 ptsOdds 5.71US +471Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 7%↑10k7%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 14.49US +1349Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 5%↑12.5k5%24h +0.4 ptsOdds 20.00US +1900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Measles cases in U.S. in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 9 open outcomes. The likeliest target still in play is ↑5k at 98%, ahead of ↑4.75k at 98%; ↑5k is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 0.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $8.2M through the event so far, including $1,855 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
shunfer sold No at 27%
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
shunfer sold No at 26%
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
shunfer sold No at 26%
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
shunfer bought No at 29%
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
shunfer bought No at 29%
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
shunfer bought No at 29%
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Nobody23041 bought Yes at 94%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
nverg sold Yes at 70%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
bajias sold Yes at 70%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
lijing-213 sold Yes at 70%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
nazha sold No at 31%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
lijing-213 bought Yes at 67%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
taiyizh bought Yes at 67%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
nverg bought Yes at 67%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
nverg bought Yes at 67%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
bajias bought Yes at 67%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
lumie sold Yes at 85%
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
pepei bought Yes at 87%
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
raniny bought Yes at 86%
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
vidac bought Yes at 86%
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
rocket1 sold No at 13%
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
gmeowcl bought No at 96%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
gmeowcl bought No at 96%
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
0x8931…a90c bought No at 89%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
fElon sold No at 91%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
fElon bought Yes at >99%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Hakei. bought No at 88%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
VincentWright2057 bought No at 87%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ricpb bought No at 63%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
LouisWilson9910 bought No at 89%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Which outcome is most likely in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Among the targets still in play, the highest probabilities are: ↑5k (98%), ↑4.75k (98%), ↑5.5k (90%). Each target is a separate market that resolves Yes if the price is touched.
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 98%, which is decimal odds of 1.02 (American −6150): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.02 if the target is hit, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.
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