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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders make <5 the favorite for “How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026” at 54% (+7.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 5-6 at 39%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
<55-67-89-10

All 8 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 8 open outcomes. <5 leads at 54%, ahead of 5-6 at 39%. <5 is up 7.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 0.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $526K through the event so far, including $320 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5 is the favorite at 54%, followed by 5-6 at 39% and 7-8 at 1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Polymarket traders give <5 a 54% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.85 (American −117): $1 staked on <5 returns about $1.85 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 7.0 points.

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