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France declares state of emergency by odds

The highest-priced market in “France declares state of emergency by” is December 31 at 15% (+5.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of October 31 at 0.9%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 2 outcomes right now.

Oct 18Oct 26
December 31October 31

All 2 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“France declares state of emergency by” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. December 31 has the highest price at 15%, ahead of October 31 at 0.9%. December 31 is up 5.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 5.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $1.1M through the event so far, including $192K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).

Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.

A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.

A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 15% in this market, which is decimal odds of 6.67 (American +567): $1 staked on Yes returns about $6.67 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 5.5 points.

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