afaus has made $6,058 in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #22,299 all time by profit, with 1.5M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 24, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$6,058
- All-time volume (shares)
- 1.5M
- Portfolio value
- $3,816
- Profit this month
- +$1,547
- Win rate (last 198 closed)
- 70%
How afaus has traded
Across the 198 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 138 (70%) ended in profit and 60 in a loss, for +$1,441 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 71%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 6 largest open positions listed below, worth $3,816 together, the biggest is “France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?” (No) at 55% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 64% · closed Nov 6, 2024
+$4,809
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
Yes · entry 58% · closed Feb 5, 2025
+$1,454
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Yes · entry 59% · closed Apr 1, 2025
+$1,450
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?
No · entry 94% · closed Aug 1, 2025
+$1,225
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?
Yes · entry 58% · closed Aug 22, 2025
+$1,057
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Yes · entry 39% · closed Dec 21, 2024
+$958
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?
No · entry 66% · closed Feb 20, 2025
+$832
Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December?
No · entry 57% · closed Jan 1, 2025
+$803
Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?
No · entry 86% · closed Aug 1, 2025
+$750
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
No · entry 67% · closed Nov 13, 2025
+$704
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 24-31?
No · entry 79% · closed Jan 31, 2025
−$4,502
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
No · entry 61% · closed Oct 10, 2025
−$3,411
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
No · entry 60% · closed Oct 30, 2025
−$2,730
Will XRP reach $3.2 in July?
No · entry 7% · closed Jul 17, 2025
−$2,611
Will XRP reach $2.9 in July?
No · entry 81% · closed Jul 12, 2025
−$1,409
Yoon arrested by January 31?
Yes · entry 59% · closed Jan 15, 2025
−$1,381
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?
No · entry 92% · closed Jun 5, 2025
−$1,145
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?
No · entry 92% · closed Apr 4, 2025
−$1,027
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 76% · closed May 16, 2026
−$758
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
Yes · entry 5% · closed Nov 30, 2024
−$685
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 91%, now >99% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,088
+$170 P&L
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
No · entry 48%, now 95% · ends Oct 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,229
+$604 P&L
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?
No · entry 93%, now >99% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$199
+$13 P&L
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
No · entry 21%, now 24% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$144
+$18 P&L
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
No · entry 72%, now 71% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$104
−$2 P&L
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?
No · entry 52%, now 59% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Recent trades
Bought No at 21%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
Bought No at 91%
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
Bought No at 72%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Bought No at 52%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?
Bought No at 92%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?
Bought No at 93%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?
Sold Yes at 20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Sold No at 83%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Sold No at >99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?
Bought No at 38%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$76
Bought No at 43%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$82
Bought No at 43%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$1
Bought No at 43%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$4
Sold No at 0.4%
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
$2
Bought No at 44%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$88
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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