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California Governor Election Winner odds

Polymarket traders make Xavier Becerra the favorite for “California Governor Election Winner” at 97% (−0.4 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Steve Hilton at 3%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
Xavier BecerraSteve HiltonRick CarusoAlex Padilla

All 23 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 23 outcomes

Where this market stands

“California Governor Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 23 open outcomes. Xavier Becerra leads at 97%, ahead of Steve Hilton at 3%. Xavier Becerra is down 0.4 points over the last 24 hours and up 0.7 points over the past week. Traders have put $42M through the event so far, including $60K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in California Governor Election Winner?
Xavier Becerra is the favorite at 97%, followed by Steve Hilton at 3% and Rick Caruso at <0.1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Polymarket traders give Xavier Becerra a 97% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.03 (American −2885): $1 staked on Xavier Becerra returns about $1.03 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.4 points.

Related odds

California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner

  • Steve Hilton63%
  • Xavier Becerra35%

$14K traded · $948 in 24h

CA-47 House Election Winner

  • Dave Min (D)96%
  • Jenny Le Roux (R)3%

$31K traded · $1,850 in 24h

California Governor Election: Turnout

  • 12.5M-13M33%
  • 13M-13.5M28%
  • 11M-11.5M11%

$24K traded · $1,272 in 24h