California Governor Election: Turnout odds
Polymarket traders make 12.5M-13M the favorite for “California Governor Election: Turnout” at 33% (−1.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 13M-13.5M at 27%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 10 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 12.5M-13M33%33%24h −1.0 ptsOdds 3.08US +208Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 13M-13.5M27%27%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 3.77US +277Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <10.5M12%12%24h +7.3 ptsOdds 8.10US +710Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 11M-11.5M11%11%24h +5.4 ptsOdds 8.77US +777Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 14.5M+11%11%24h +0.7 ptsOdds 9.09US +809Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 13.5M-14M10%10%24h −1.5 ptsOdds 10.53US +953Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 12M-12.5M8%8%24h −6.0 ptsOdds 13.33US +1233Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 14M-14.5M5%5%24h −5.8 ptsOdds 20.62US +1962Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 11.5M-12M2%2%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 58.82US +5782Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 10.5M-11M0.6%0.6%24h +0.2 ptsOdds 166.67US +16567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“California Governor Election: Turnout” is a Polymarket event with 10 open outcomes. 12.5M-13M leads at 33%, ahead of 13M-13.5M at 27%. 12.5M-13M is down 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 7.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $24K through the event so far, including $1,193 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
jikolep bought No at 85%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 10,500,000 and 11,000,000?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Who is the favorite in California Governor Election: Turnout?
- 12.5M-13M is the favorite at 33%, followed by 13M-13.5M at 27% and <10.5M at 12%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000?
- Polymarket traders give 12.5M-13M a 33% chance, which is decimal odds of 3.08 (American +208): $1 staked on 12.5M-13M returns about $3.08 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.0 points.
