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Serene-Decision

0x8b4b…541b · Joined January 30, 2026

#3,223,679 all time#301 this monthView on Polymarket

Serene-Decision is down $160K in realized results on Polymarket, with 46M shares traded.

Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.

All-time realized profit
−$160K
All-time volume (shares)
46M
Portfolio value
$4.0M
Profit this month
+$61K
Win rate (last 198 closed)
90%

How Serene-Decision has traded

Across the 198 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 179 (90%) ended in profit and 19 in a loss, for −$141K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 92%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 87 of the 198 are about crypto, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $2.7M together, the biggest is “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?” (No) at 24% of that value.

Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.

Biggest wins

Closed positions with the highest realized profit.

  • Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

    Yes · entry 6% · closed Jul 7, 2026

    +$47K

  • Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

    No · entry 86% · closed Jul 1, 2026

    +$37K

  • Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

    Yes · entry 3% · closed Jun 30, 2026

    +$36K

  • Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

    Yes · entry 25% · closed Jul 12, 2026

    +$36K

  • Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?

    Yes · entry 30% · closed Jul 14, 2026

    +$32K

  • Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

    No · entry 92% · closed May 1, 2026

    +$31K

  • Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

    No · entry 88% · closed Apr 1, 2026

    +$26K

  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    Yes · entry 13% · closed Oct 15, 2026

    +$24K

  • Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?

    Yes · entry 8% · closed Jul 14, 2026

    +$23K

  • US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

    No · entry 3% · closed Oct 22, 2026

    +$22K

Biggest losses

Closed positions with the largest realized loss.

  • China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

    No · entry 85% · closed Jul 20, 2026

    −$133K

  • Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?

    No · entry 96% · closed Jul 15, 2026

    −$107K

  • Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

    No · entry 88% · closed Mar 4, 2026

    −$84K

  • Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

    No · entry 95% · closed Aug 25, 2026

    −$74K

  • Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

    Yes · entry 93% · closed Aug 25, 2026

    −$45K

  • US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

    No · entry 84% · closed Feb 28, 2026

    −$42K

  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    No · entry 85% · closed Oct 8, 2026

    −$42K

  • Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?

    No · entry 97% · closed Aug 25, 2026

    −$39K

  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

    Yes · entry 25% · closed Jul 29, 2026

    −$37K

  • Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

    No · entry 95% · closed Jun 30, 2026

    −$35K

Open positions

The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.

Recent trades

Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.

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