Skip to content
WhaleSays
Open Polymarket

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026 odds

The highest-priced market in “French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026” is Dominique de Villepin at 70% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of François Hollande at 21%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

Market ends:

Start trading on PolymarketAffiliate link · 18+ · trading involves riskView this market on Polymarket

Prices refresh about every 30 minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If “Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026” resolves Yes, $20 returns about $28.57.

Price per share
70¢
Implied chance
70%
Shares
28.57
Payout if it wins
$28.57
Profit if it wins
+$8.57
Odds
1.43 · −233

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Dominique de Villepin on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 14:19 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Dominique de VillepinFrançois HollandeBernard CazeneuveYaël Braun-Pivet

All 15 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Long shots that pay the most

The 3 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

Where this market stands

“French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 15 open outcomes. Dominique de Villepin has the highest price at 70%, ahead of François Hollande at 21%. Dominique de Villepin is unchanged over the last 24 hours and down 2.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $122K through the event so far, including $1,895 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on April 18, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

All whale trades

How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 70% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.43 (American −233): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.43 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

Related odds

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

  • Democrats Sweep72%
  • R Senate, D House23%
  • Republicans Sweep6%

$53M traded · $3.0M in 24h

Which party will win the House in 2026?

  • Democratic Party95%
  • Republican Party6%

$38M traded · $2.6M in 24h

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

  • Democratic Party73%
  • Republican Party28%

$16M traded · $2.5M in 24h