What if you bet $100 on Arsenal to win the 2025–26 Premier League?
A $100 bet on Arsenal at its lowest price of 26.5¢ (13 Aug 2025) would have paid $377 when the market resolved, a 3.8x return. A week before the result, at 86.5¢, the same $100 would have paid $116.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on Arsenal would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Opening price
25 Jul 2025 · price 27.5¢
$100 would have paid $364
3.6x return
Lowest price
13 Aug 2025 · price 26.5¢
$100 would have paid $377
3.8x return
30 days before the result
19 Apr 2026 · price 59.5¢
$100 would have paid $168
1.7x return
7 days before the result
12 May 2026 · price 86.5¢
$100 would have paid $116
1.2x return
1 day before the result
19 May 2026 · price 86.5¢
$100 would have paid $116
1.2x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a Arsenal share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 13 Aug 2025 at 26.5¢ · decimal odds 3.77
- Shares bought
- 377
- Payout if Arsenal won
- $377
- Profit
- +$277
- Return
- 3.8x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Polymarket's English Premier League Winner market opened in July 2025, before the 2025–26 season, with a market for each club. It resolved to the club that finished top of the table.
Liverpool, the reigning champions, won their first five games and led the table for almost all of August and September. Arsenal went top on October 4, 2025, after a 2–0 win over West Ham on the day Liverpool lost 2–1 at Chelsea, and stayed there for almost all of the rest of the season. Manchester City kept chasing: on April 22, 2026 they were briefly ahead of Arsenal on goals scored.
Arsenal then won their next four games. City's 1–1 draw at Bournemouth on May 19, 2026, with one game left, handed Arsenal the title. They finished on 85 points, seven clear of City, for their first league title since 2003–04. The timeline below marks the moment Arsenal went top, City's closest point and the clincher.
Timeline with the Arsenal price
Price of a Arsenal share the day before each date and the day after it.
Arsenal go top after beating West Ham as Liverpool lose at Chelsea
Arsenal price: 45¢ then 49.5¢
Manchester City briefly ahead of Arsenal on goals scored
Arsenal price: 59.5¢ then 42.5¢
City draw 1–1 at Bournemouth; Arsenal are champions with a game to spare
Arsenal price: 82.5¢ then 99.95¢
Sources for the events above: 2025–26 Premier League (Wikipedia).
The other side: $100 on Manchester City
$0
Manchester City peaked at 57.5¢ on 22 Apr 2026. At that price $100 buys 174 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. Manchester City did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
Markets like this are open now
This one is settled, but Polymarket lists new questions on the same kind of event all the time. These pages follow them live:
- Champions League winner odds · Live prices for the next European Cup.
- Ballon d'Or 2026 odds · Who traders expect to win football's top individual prize.
We suggest $20 as a sensible first deposit. New to Polymarket? Our first-trade guide walks through it.
Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on Arsenal have made on Polymarket?
- At its lowest price of 26.5¢ (13 Aug 2025), $100 buys 377 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $377, a profit of $277. One week before the result (86.5¢) the same $100 would have returned $116. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on Arsenal a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, Arsenal traded at 86.5¢ on 12 May 2026, an implied chance of 87%. That is decimal odds of 1.16 (American −641). One day before the result the price was 86.5¢.
- What would $100 on Manchester City have been worth?
- Nothing. Manchester City peaked at 57.5¢ on 22 Apr 2026, a price at which $100 buys 174 shares, but Manchester City did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 20 May 2026), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the Champions League winner odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “English Premier League Winner”, from 24 Jul 2025 to 20 May 2026. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: English Premier League Winner on Polymarket (affiliate link).
More hindsight bets
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$100 at 8.5¢ (1 Mar 2026) paid
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$100 at 1.2¢ (8 Oct 2024) paid
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83x return
Spain, 2026 World Cup
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