What if you bet $100 on PSG to win the 2026 Champions League?
A $100 bet on PSG at its lowest price of 8.5¢ (1 Mar 2026) would have paid $1,176 when the market resolved, a 12x return. A week before the result, at 57.5¢, the same $100 would have paid $174.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on PSG would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Opening price
30 Jul 2025 · price 15.5¢
$100 would have paid $645
6.5x return
Lowest price
1 Mar 2026 · price 8.5¢
$100 would have paid $1,176
12x return
30 days before the result
30 Apr 2026 · price 30.5¢
$100 would have paid $328
3.3x return
7 days before the result
23 May 2026 · price 57.5¢
$100 would have paid $174
1.7x return
1 day before the result
29 May 2026 · price 57.5¢
$100 would have paid $174
1.7x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a PSG share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 1 Mar 2026 at 8.5¢ · decimal odds 11.76
- Shares bought
- 1,176
- Payout if PSG won
- $1,176
- Profit
- +$1,076
- Return
- 12x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Polymarket's UEFA Champions League Winner market for 2025–26 opened in July 2025 and followed the competition to the final in Budapest on May 30, 2026. It resolved to the club that won the final.
Paris Saint-Germain, the defending champions, finished outside the top eight of the league phase and had to go through the knockout play-offs. They beat Monaco 5–4 on aggregate in February 2026, then Chelsea 8–2, Liverpool 4–0 and, in the semi-finals, Bayern Munich 6–5 on aggregate. The data shows PSG at its cheapest in the days after the tight Monaco tie.
Arsenal, seeded first after the league phase, skipped the play-offs and reached the final by beating Bayer Leverkusen, Sporting CP and Atlético Madrid. The final finished 1–1 after extra time, and PSG won 4–3 on penalties to keep the trophy, the club's second European Cup in a row. The timeline below marks the Monaco tie, the semi-final and the final.
Timeline with the PSG price
Price of a PSG share the day before each date and the day after it.
Play-off first leg: Monaco 2, PSG 3
PSG price: 10.5¢
Play-off second leg: PSG 2, Monaco 2 (PSG win 5–4 on aggregate)
PSG price: 9.5¢ then 10.5¢
Semi-final second leg: Bayern Munich 1, PSG 1 (PSG win 6–5 on aggregate)
PSG price: 31.5¢ then 57.5¢
Final in Budapest: PSG 1, Arsenal 1; PSG win 4–3 on penalties
PSG price: 57.5¢ then 56.5¢
Sources for the events above: 2025–26 UEFA Champions League (Wikipedia); 2025–26 UEFA Champions League knockout phase (Wikipedia).
The other side: $100 on Arsenal
$0
Arsenal peaked at 43.5¢ on 30 May 2026. At that price $100 buys 230 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. Arsenal did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
Markets like this are open now
This one is settled, but Polymarket lists new questions on the same kind of event all the time. These pages follow them live:
- Champions League winner odds · Live prices for the next European Cup.
- Ballon d'Or 2026 odds · Who traders expect to win football's top individual prize.
We suggest $20 as a sensible first deposit. New to Polymarket? Our first-trade guide walks through it.
Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on PSG have made on Polymarket?
- At its lowest price of 8.5¢ (1 Mar 2026), $100 buys 1,176 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $1,176, a profit of $1,076. One week before the result (57.5¢) the same $100 would have returned $174. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on PSG a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, PSG traded at 57.5¢ on 23 May 2026, an implied chance of 57%. That is decimal odds of 1.74 (American −135). One day before the result the price was 57.5¢.
- What would $100 on Arsenal have been worth?
- Nothing. Arsenal peaked at 43.5¢ on 30 May 2026, a price at which $100 buys 230 shares, but Arsenal did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 30 May 2026), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the Champions League winner odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “UEFA Champions League Winner”, from 29 Jul 2025 to 30 May 2026. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: UEFA Champions League Winner on Polymarket (affiliate link).
More hindsight bets
PSG, Champions League 2025
A rocky league phase, a play-off and a 5–0 final for the club's first European Cup.
$100 at 1.2¢ (8 Oct 2024) paid
$8,333
83x return
Arsenal, Premier League 2025–26
Arsenal's first title since 2004, with Manchester City still in touch until the last month.
$100 at 26.5¢ (13 Aug 2025) paid
$377
3.8x return
Spain, 2026 World Cup
A year-long market on the first 48-team World Cup, decided by a 1–0 final after extra time.
$100 at 10.05¢ (2 Jul 2026) paid
$995
10x return
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