What if you bet $100 on Bulgaria to win Eurovision 2026?
A $100 bet on Bulgaria at its lowest price of 0.55¢ (11 May 2026) would have paid $18,182 when the market resolved, a 182x return. A week before the result, at 0.65¢, the same $100 would have paid $15,385.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on Bulgaria would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Opening price
7 Dec 2025 · price 3.5¢
$100 would have paid $2,857
29x return
Lowest price
11 May 2026 · price 0.55¢
$100 would have paid $18,182
182x return
30 days before the result
9 Apr 2026 · price 1.05¢
$100 would have paid $9,524
95x return
7 days before the result
10 May 2026 · price 0.65¢
$100 would have paid $15,385
154x return
1 day before the result
16 May 2026 · price 3.25¢
$100 would have paid $3,077
31x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a Bulgaria share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 11 May 2026 at 0.55¢ · decimal odds 181.82
- Shares bought
- 18,182
- Payout if Bulgaria won
- $18,182
- Profit
- +$18,082
- Return
- 182x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Polymarket's Eurovision Winner 2026 market listed every competing country and ran from December 2025 to the grand final in Vienna on May 16, 2026. For most of that time other countries led the betting. Finland led in the weeks before the contest, with Greece and Denmark next.
Bulgaria entered with Dara and “Bangaranga”. The country had never won Eurovision, and a week before the final the market priced it below 1%. After the semi-finals on May 12 and 14 and the rehearsals, the picture changed late. In the final Bulgaria won both the jury vote and the public vote, the first entry to do that since Portugal in 2017, and finished with 516 points to Israel's 343.
Eurovision markets move late because rehearsals, semi-final performances and the final's two separate votes all arrive within days of each other. That makes them some of the most extreme examples of how a long-shot price can pay out. It also means most long shots lose: only one country wins each year, and every other country's shares resolve to $0.
Timeline with the Bulgaria price
Price of a Bulgaria share the day before each date and the day after it.
First semi-final
Bulgaria price: 0.55¢
Second semi-final
Bulgaria price: 0.55¢ then 3.35¢
Grand final in Vienna; Bulgaria wins
Bulgaria price: 3.35¢ then 99.95¢
Sources for the events above: Eurovision Song Contest 2026 (Wikipedia); Bulgaria's Dara wins Eurovision 2026 (BTA).
The other side: $100 on Finland
$0
Finland peaked at 54.35¢ on 15 May 2026. At that price $100 buys 184 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. Finland did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
Markets like this are open now
This one is settled, but Polymarket lists new questions on the same kind of event all the time. These pages follow them live:
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Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on Bulgaria have made on Polymarket?
- At its lowest price of 0.55¢ (11 May 2026), $100 buys 18,182 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $18,182, a profit of $18,082. One week before the result (0.65¢) the same $100 would have returned $15,385. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on Bulgaria a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, Bulgaria traded at 0.65¢ on 10 May 2026, an implied chance of 0.7%. That is decimal odds of 153.85 (American +15285). One day before the result the price was 3.25¢.
- What would $100 on Finland have been worth?
- Nothing. Finland peaked at 54.35¢ on 15 May 2026, a price at which $100 buys 184 shares, but Finland did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 17 May 2026), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the all live Polymarket odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “Eurovision Winner 2026”, from 6 Dec 2025 to 17 May 2026. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: Eurovision Winner 2026 on Polymarket (affiliate link).
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