What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Live odds
Polymarket traders make 4.25% the favorite for “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026” at 70% (+1.3 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 4.0% at 17%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 15 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 70%
4.25%70%24h +1.3 ptsOdds 1.42US −236Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 17%4.0%17%24h −2.4 ptsOdds 5.99US +499Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 9%≥ 4.5%9%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 11.76US +1076Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2%3.75%2%24h +0.7 ptsOdds 60.61US +5961Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 1%3.5%1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 68.97US +6797Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.4%≤1.0%0.4%24h −0.2 ptsOdds 222.22US +22122Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.4%3.25%0.4%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 250.00US +24900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.4%1.250.4%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 285.71US +28471Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.3%2.25%0.3%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 400.00US +39900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.3%2.5%0.3%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 400.00US +39900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.3%1.75%0.3%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 400.00US +39900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.3%2.0%0.3%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 400.00US +39900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.2%3.0%0.2%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 500.00US +49900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.1%2.75%0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 666.67US +66567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.1%1.5%0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 666.67US +66567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026” is a Polymarket event with 15 open outcomes. 4.25% leads at 70%, ahead of 4.0% at 17%. 4.25% is up 1.3 points over the last 24 hours and up 3.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $7.1M through the event so far, including $4,054 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
podairpod sold Yes at 69%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Huxleydf bought No at >99%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
podairpod bought No at 78%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
tinman2 bought Yes at 58%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
tinman2 bought Yes at 55%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
tinman2 bought Yes at 52%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo sold Yes at 49%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo sold Yes at 49%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo sold Yes at 49%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo sold Yes at 49%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo sold Yes at 50%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo sold Yes at 50%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
zxdfbdfgngcxv bought Yes at 54%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo bought Yes at 37%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo bought Yes at 37%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Sardonic-Cue bought Yes at 37%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ahpo bought Yes at 37%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Crowded-Farming bought No at 96%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
most8 sold No at 53%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
DancewithRisk bought Yes at 40%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
strategy1.2 bought Yes at 40%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
shiye1 sold No at 61%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
bigenguo sold No at 61%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
taotao2 sold Yes at 38%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
taotao2 sold Yes at 40%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
fanche sold Yes at 35%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
fanche sold Yes at 36%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
taotao2 bought Yes at 32%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
kujv sold Yes at 24%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
shiye1 bought No at 76%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
How this market resolves
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- 4.25% is the favorite at 70%, followed by 4.0% at 17% and ≥ 4.5% at 9%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
- Polymarket traders give 4.25% a 70% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.42 (American −236): $1 staked on 4.25% returns about $1.42 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 1.3 points.
