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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027? Live odds

Polymarket traders make 4.5% the favorite for “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027” at 38% (−2.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 4.25% at 23%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
4.5%4.25%4.75%≤2.5%

All 15 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027” is a Polymarket event with 15 open outcomes. 4.5% leads at 38%, ahead of 4.25% at 23%. 4.5% is down 2.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 4.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $27K through the event so far, including $756 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028.

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How this market resolves

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?
4.5% is the favorite at 38%, followed by 4.25% at 23% and 4.75% at 22%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.5% at the end of 2027?
Polymarket traders give 4.5% a 38% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.67 (American +167): $1 staked on 4.5% returns about $2.67 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 2.5 points.

Related odds

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

  • 4.25%70%
  • 4.0%17%
  • ≥ 4.5%8%

$7.1M traded · $4,044 in 24h

Fed Decision in October?

  • No change95%
  • 25 bps increase6%
  • 50+ bps increase0.4%

$66M traded · $4.1M in 24h

Fed Decision in December?

  • 25 bps increase77%
  • No change21%
  • 50+ bps increase3%

$4.7M traded · $66K in 24h