Illinois Senate Election: Turnout odds
Polymarket traders make 4.25M-4.5M the favorite for “Illinois Senate Election: Turnout” at 56% (+34 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 4.5M-4.75M at 28%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 8 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 4.25M-4.5M56%56%24h +34 ptsOdds 1.80US −125Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 4.5M-4.75M28%28%24h −19 ptsOdds 3.64US +264Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 4M-4.25M12%12%24h +0.5 ptsOdds 8.33US +733Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3.5M-3.75M9%9%24h +2.1 ptsOdds 11.43US +1043Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 4.75M+7%7%24h −1.6 ptsOdds 13.89US +1289Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3.75M-4M7%7%24h +2.5 ptsOdds 14.29US +1329Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3.25M-3.5M5%5%24h +1.4 ptsOdds 20.20US +1920Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <3.25M2%2%24h −15 ptsOdds 44.44US +4344Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Illinois Senate Election: Turnout” is a Polymarket event with 8 open outcomes. 4.25M-4.5M leads at 56%, ahead of 4.5M-4.75M at 28%. 4.25M-4.5M is up 34 points over the last 24 hours and up 19 points over the past week. Traders have put $22K through the event so far, including $1,458 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Who is the favorite in Illinois Senate Election: Turnout?
- 4.25M-4.5M is the favorite at 56%, followed by 4.5M-4.75M at 28% and 4M-4.25M at 12%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000?
- Polymarket traders give 4.25M-4.5M a 56% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.80 (American −125): $1 staked on 4.25M-4.5M returns about $1.80 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 34 points.
