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2026 Hawaii Governor Race odds

Polymarket traders make Josh Green (D) the favorite for “Hawaii Governor Election Winner” at >99% (+0.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Gary Cordery (R) at 0.9%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 2 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 1
Josh Green (D)Gary Cordery (R)

All 2 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Hawaii Governor Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Josh Green (D) leads at >99%, ahead of Gary Cordery (R) at 0.9%. Josh Green (D) is up 0.5 points over the last 24 hours and up 1.8 points over the past week. Traders have put $29K through the event so far, including $462 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Hawaii Governor Election Winner?
Josh Green (D) is the favorite at >99%, followed by Gary Cordery (R) at 0.9%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?
Polymarket traders give Josh Green (D) a >99% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.01 (American −13233): $1 staked on Josh Green (D) returns about $1.01 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.5 points.

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