Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout odds
Polymarket traders make 340K-370K the favorite for “Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout” at 48% (−1.7 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 370K-400K at 28%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 8 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 340K-370K48%48%24h −1.7 ptsOdds 2.07US +107Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 370K-400K28%28%24h −5.0 ptsOdds 3.57US +257Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 310K-340K11%11%24h −1.5 ptsOdds 9.43US +843Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 400K-430K10%10%24h −3.4 ptsOdds 9.80US +880Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 430K-460K5%5%24h −1.0 ptsOdds 20.00US +1900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 460K-490K4%4%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 27.78US +2678Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 490K+2%2%24h −2.1 ptsOdds 64.52US +6352Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <310K1%1%24h −0.5 ptsOdds 76.92US +7592Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout” is a Polymarket event with 8 open outcomes. 340K-370K leads at 48%, ahead of 370K-400K at 28%. 340K-370K is down 1.7 points over the last 24 hours and up 37 points over the past week. Traders have put $42K through the event so far, including $1,072 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
spacegliderr bought No at 78%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 430,000 and 460,000?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout?
- 340K-370K is the favorite at 48%, followed by 370K-400K at 28% and 310K-340K at 11%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 340,000 and 370,000?
- Polymarket traders give 340K-370K a 48% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.07 (American +107): $1 staked on 340K-370K returns about $2.07 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.7 points.
