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Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) odds

Polymarket traders make Pause-Hike-Pause the favorite for “Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)” at 59% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of Pause-Hike-Hike at 18%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 30Oct 25
Pause-Hike-PausePause-Hike-HikePause-Pause-HikePause-Pause-Pause

All 9 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)” is a Polymarket event with 9 open outcomes. Pause-Hike-Pause leads at 59%, ahead of Pause-Hike-Hike at 18%. Pause-Hike-Pause is unchanged over the last 24 hours and down 1.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $72K through the event so far, including $93 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 27, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

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How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Who is the favorite in Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)?
Pause-Hike-Pause is the favorite at 59%, followed by Pause-Hike-Hike at 18% and Pause-Pause-Hike at 11%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Polymarket traders give Pause-Hike-Pause a 59% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.69 (American −144): $1 staked on Pause-Hike-Pause returns about $1.69 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

Related odds

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

  • Hike–Pause–Hike75%
  • Hike–Pause–Pause21%
  • Hike–Hike–Pause2%

$489K traded · $14K in 24h

Fed Decision in October?

  • No change94%
  • 25 bps increase6%
  • 50+ bps increase0.3%

$64M traded · $2.1M in 24h

Fed Decision in December?

  • 25 bps increase77%
  • No change21%
  • 50+ bps increase3%

$4.7M traded · $61K in 24h