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Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026 odds

The highest-priced market in “Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026” is Harry Kane at >99% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of Lamine Yamal at 99%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
Harry KaneLamine YamalKylian MbappéLionel Messi

All 19 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 19 outcomes

Where this market stands

“Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026” is a Polymarket event with 19 open outcomes. Harry Kane has the highest price at >99%, ahead of Lamine Yamal at 99%. Harry Kane is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 0.4 points over the past week. Traders have put $348K through the event so far, including $20K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No."

If more than 5 players tie for the top 5 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 5 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.

If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final five places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at >99% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.01 (American −12400): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.01 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

Related odds

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?

  • Mbappé76%

$948K traded · $92K in 24h

Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

  • Harry Kane99%
  • Lamine Yamal94%
  • Kylian Mbappé91%

$854K traded · $63K in 24h

Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026

  • Harry Kane>99%
  • Lamine Yamal>99%
  • Kylian Mbappé>99%

$187K traded · $18K in 24h