Skip to content
WhaleSays
Open Polymarket

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher odds

Polymarket traders put the chance of Mbappé at 72% and Yamal at 28% for “Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher” (Mbappé −4.0 pts in the last 24 hours).

Start trading on PolymarketAffiliate link · 18+ · trading involves riskView this market on Polymarket

Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Chance of Mbappé over the last 30 days

Price of a Mbappé share.

Sep 30Oct 26

Mbappé and Yamal odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Mbappé is priced at 72% and Yamal at 28%; Mbappé is down 4.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 16 points over the past week. Traders have put $946K through the market so far, including $90K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

All whale trades

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Mbappé" if Kylian Mbappé finishes higher than Lamine Yamal in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Yamal" if Lamine Yamal finishes higher than Kylian Mbappé.

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.

If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
Polymarket currently prices Mbappé at 72% (decimal odds 1.39, American −257) and Yamal at 28% (decimal odds 3.57, American +257). Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome.
When does this market close?
The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.

Related odds

Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

  • Harry Kane98%
  • Kylian Mbappé96%
  • Lamine Yamal94%

$842K traded · $41K in 24h

Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026

  • Harry Kane>99%
  • Lamine Yamal99%
  • Kylian Mbappé98%

$347K traded · $19K in 24h

Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026

  • Harry Kane>99%
  • Lamine Yamal>99%
  • Kylian Mbappé>99%

$181K traded · $13K in 24h