Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026 odds
The highest-priced market in “Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026” is Harry Kane at >99% (−0.1 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Lamine Yamal at >99%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 30 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Harry Kane>99%>99%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 1.00US −33233Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Lamine Yamal>99%>99%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 1.00US −28471Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Kylian Mbappé>99%>99%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.01US −19900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Lionel Messi99%99%24h −0.5 ptsOdds 1.01US −7900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Rodri99%99%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 1.02US −6567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia97%97%24h +4.2 ptsOdds 1.03US −3126Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Ousmane Dembélé96%96%24h +2.4 ptsOdds 1.04US −2678Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Michael Olise95%95%24h +0.3 ptsOdds 1.05US −1842Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Erling Haaland79%79%24h −2.0 ptsOdds 1.27US −365Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Jude Bellingham59%59%24h +22 ptsOdds 1.71US −141Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Fabian Ruiz53%53%24h −25 ptsOdds 1.90US −111Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Vitinha38%38%24h +27 ptsOdds 2.61US +161Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Pau Cubarsi34%34%24h +14 ptsOdds 2.94US +194Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Declan Rice14%14%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 7.41US +641Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Vinícius Júnior6%6%24h +4.2 ptsOdds 15.50US +1450Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Show all 30 outcomesShow fewer outcomes
- Ferran Torres6%6%24h +3.8 ptsOdds 16.53US +1553Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Achraf Hakimi3%3%24h +0.8 ptsOdds 32.26US +3126Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- William Saliba3%3%24h −0.4 ptsOdds 32.79US +3179Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Willian Pacho2%2%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 40.82US +3982Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Nuno Mendes2%2%24h +0.4 ptsOdds 41.67US +4067Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Marc Cucurella2%2%24h +0.7 ptsOdds 44.44US +4344Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Bruno Fernandes2%2%24h −3.3 ptsOdds 46.51US +4551Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Luis Diaz2%2%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 55.56US +5456Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Lautaro Martinez2%2%24h −0.3 ptsOdds 55.56US +5456Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- João Neves2%2%24h −0.3 ptsOdds 55.56US +5456Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Dayot Upamecano1%1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 80.00US +7900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Julián Quiñones0.7%0.7%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 153.85US +15285Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Gabriel Magalhães0.6%0.6%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 166.67US +16567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Sadio Mané0.6%0.6%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 166.67US +16567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Marquinhos0.6%0.6%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 166.67US +16567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026” is a Polymarket event with 30 open outcomes. Harry Kane has the highest price at >99%, ahead of Lamine Yamal at >99%. Harry Kane is down 0.1 points over the last 24 hours and up 0.1 points over the past week. Traders have put $187K through the event so far, including $18K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
Chonchitoooo bought No at 94%
Will Nuno Mendes finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Chonchitoooo bought No at 93%
Will Nuno Mendes finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Chonchitoooo sold No at 92%
Will Nuno Mendes finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Will Harry Kane finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at >99% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.00 (American −33233): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.00 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.1 points.
