What if you bet $100 on the Thunder to win the 2025 NBA title?
A $100 bet on the Thunder at the opening price of 11.5¢ (26 Sep 2024) would have paid $870 when the market resolved, a 8.7x return. A week before the result, at 80.5¢, the same $100 would have paid $124.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on the Thunder would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Lowest price (the opening price)
26 Sep 2024 · price 11.5¢
$100 would have paid $870
8.7x return
30 days before the result
24 May 2025 · price 74.5¢
$100 would have paid $134
1.3x return
7 days before the result
16 Jun 2025 · price 80.5¢
$100 would have paid $124
1.2x return
1 day before the result
22 Jun 2025 · price 71.5¢
$100 would have paid $140
1.4x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a the Thunder share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 26 Sep 2024 at 11.5¢ · decimal odds 8.70
- Shares bought
- 870
- Payout if the Thunder won
- $870
- Profit
- +$770
- Return
- 8.7x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Polymarket's NBA Champion market for the 2024–25 season opened in September 2024 with a market for every team and ran until the end of the Finals. It resolved to the team that won the NBA championship.
The Oklahoma City Thunder finished the regular season 68–14 and were heavy favourites against the Indiana Pacers (50–32) in the NBA Finals. The series went the full seven games. In Game 7 on June 22, 2025 in Oklahoma City, the Thunder won 103–91 after Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton, who was already playing through a calf strain, tore his right Achilles tendon early in the first quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named Finals MVP.
Oklahoma City was priced as a contender from the opening day and finished as the favourite, so the multiples are smaller than for long-shot winners such as Bulgaria or Mamdani. It is a useful reminder that a favourite's payout is modest even when it wins, and that a seven-game series can still turn on one night.
Timeline with the the Thunder price
Price of a the Thunder share the day before each date and the day after it.
Game 7 of the NBA Finals: Thunder 103, Pacers 91
the Thunder price: 71.5¢ then 70¢
Sources for the events above: 2025 NBA Finals (Wikipedia).
The other side: $100 on the Pacers
$0
The Pacers peaked at 34.05¢ on 14 Jun 2025. At that price $100 buys 294 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. The Pacers did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
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Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on the Thunder have made on Polymarket?
- At the opening price of 11.5¢ (26 Sep 2024), $100 buys 870 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $870, a profit of $770. One week before the result (80.5¢) the same $100 would have returned $124. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on the Thunder a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, the Thunder traded at 80.5¢ on 16 Jun 2025, an implied chance of 81%. That is decimal odds of 1.24 (American −413). One day before the result the price was 71.5¢.
- What would $100 on the Pacers have been worth?
- Nothing. The Pacers peaked at 34.05¢ on 14 Jun 2025, a price at which $100 buys 294 shares, but the Pacers did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 23 Jun 2025), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the all live Polymarket odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “NBA Champion”, from 25 Sep 2024 to 23 Jun 2025. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: NBA Champion on Polymarket (affiliate link).
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