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Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders make Justin Gaethje the favorite for “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026” at 91% (+0.7 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Arman Tsarukyan at 4%.

Market ends:

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

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Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

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If Justin Gaethje wins “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026”, $20 returns about $21.89.

Price per share
91.35¢
Implied chance
91%
Shares
21.89
Payout if it wins
$21.89
Profit if it wins
+$1.89
Odds
1.09 · −1056

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Justin Gaethje on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 13:13 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Justin GaethjeArman TsarukyanIlia TopuriaCharles Oliveira

All 12 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Long shots that pay the most

The outcome priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

Where this market stands

“Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026” is a Polymarket event with 12 open outcomes. Justin Gaethje leads at 91%, ahead of Arman Tsarukyan at 4%. Justin Gaethje is up 0.7 points over the last 24 hours and up 0.9 points over the past week. Traders have put $771K through the event so far, including $1,295 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Who is the favorite in Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
Justin Gaethje is the favorite at 91%, followed by Arman Tsarukyan at 4% and Ilia Topuria at 0.2%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders give Justin Gaethje a 91% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.09 (American −1056): $1 staked on Justin Gaethje returns about $1.09 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.7 points.

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