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Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? Live odds

Polymarket traders make No solution by Dec 31, 2027 the favorite for “Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next” at 43% (+8.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Yang-Mills at 19%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 27Oct 27
No solution by Dec 31, 2027Yang-MillsHodge ConjectureBirch and Swinnerton-Dyer

All 6 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next” is a Polymarket event with 6 open outcomes. No solution by Dec 31, 2027 leads at 43%, ahead of Yang-Mills at 19%. No solution by Dec 31, 2027 is up 8.5 points over the last 24 hours and up 8.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $302K through the event so far, including $25K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order.

The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.

A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.

The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

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Who is the favorite in Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
No solution by Dec 31, 2027 is the favorite at 43%, followed by Yang-Mills at 19% and Hodge Conjecture at 16%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?
Polymarket traders give No solution by Dec 31, 2027 a 43% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.33 (American +133): $1 staked on No solution by Dec 31, 2027 returns about $2.33 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 8.5 points.

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