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Israel Election: Likud number of seats odds

Polymarket traders make 20-24 the favorite for “Israel Election: Likud number of seats” at 35% (−9.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of <20 at 33%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
20-24<2025-2930-34

All 5 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Israel Election: Likud number of seats” is a Polymarket event with 5 open outcomes. 20-24 leads at 35%, ahead of <20 at 33%. 20-24 is down 9.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 8.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $1.2M through the event so far, including $154K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on October 28, 2026.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Israel Election: Likud number of seats?
20-24 is the favorite at 35%, followed by <20 at 33% and 25-29 at 25%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Polymarket traders give 20-24 a 35% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.90 (American +190): $1 staked on 20-24 returns about $2.90 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 9.0 points.

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