Israel election: will Likud lose seats odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 94% and No at 6% for “Israel election: will Likud lose seats” (Yes −0.8 pts in the last 24 hours).
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Chance of Yes over the last 30 days
Price of a Yes share.
Yes and No odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Yes94%94%24h −0.8 ptsOdds 1.07US −1438Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- No6%6%24h +0.8 ptsOdds 15.38US +1438Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Israel election: will Likud lose seats” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 94% and No at 6%; Yes is down 0.8 points over the last 24 hours and down 1.9 points over the past week. Traders have put $32K through the market so far, including $613 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on October 28, 2026.
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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
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How this market resolves
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 94% (decimal odds 1.07, American −1438) and No at 6% (decimal odds 15.38, American +1438). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is October 28, 2026. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
