Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory odds
Polymarket traders make Republican 20-25% the favorite for “Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory” at 30% (−0.9 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Republican 15-20% at 20%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 9 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 30%
Republican 20-25%30%24h −0.9 ptsOdds 3.35US +235Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 20%Republican 15-20%20%24h −3.0 ptsOdds 5.13US +413Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 16%Republican 10-15%16%24h −0.5 ptsOdds 6.37US +537Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 12%Republican 0-5%12%24h +7.0 ptsOdds 8.23US +723Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 6%Republican 25-30%6%24h −11 ptsOdds 16.67US +1567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 4%Republican 30-35%4%24h −1.7 ptsOdds 28.17US +2717Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3%Republican 35%+3%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 33.90US +3290Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3%Republican 5-10%3%24h −0.2 ptsOdds 35.71US +3471Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2%
Democrat Wins2%24h −0.8 ptsOdds 47.62US +4662Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory” is a Polymarket event with 9 open outcomes. Republican 20-25% leads at 30%, ahead of Republican 15-20% at 20%. Republican 20-25% is down 0.9 points over the last 24 hours and up 2.8 points over the past week. Traders have put $31K through the event so far, including $460 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory?
- Republican 20-25% is the favorite at 30%, followed by Republican 15-20% at 20% and Republican 10-15% at 16%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?
- Polymarket traders give Republican 20-25% a 30% chance, which is decimal odds of 3.35 (American +235): $1 staked on Republican 20-25% returns about $3.35 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.9 points.
