LeopoldArschenbrenner
0x8671…d4b7 · Joined March 10, 2026
LeopoldArschenbrenner has made $4,860 in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #26,377 all time by profit, with 1.1M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$4,860
- All-time volume (shares)
- 1.1M
- Portfolio value
- $59K
- Profit this month
- +$1,984
- Win rate (last 37 closed)
- 70%
How LeopoldArschenbrenner has traded
Across all 37 closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 26 (70%) ended in profit and 11 in a loss, for −$3,476 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 62%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 26 of the 37 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $43K together, the biggest is “Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?” (No) at 12% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 0.7% · closed Oct 5, 2026
+$3,096
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 75% · closed Sep 10, 2026
+$1,345
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
No · entry 79% · closed Sep 15, 2026
+$1,118
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
No · entry 22% · closed Aug 12, 2026
+$865
Netanyahu out by June 30?
No · entry 83% · closed Jul 1, 2026
+$801
Netanyahu out by March 31?
No · entry 98% · closed Apr 5, 2026
+$580
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 16% · closed Oct 24, 2026
+$481
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
No · entry 84% · closed Oct 24, 2026
+$400
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
Yes · entry 95% · closed Apr 14, 2026
+$350
Netanyahu out by April 30?
No · entry 90% · closed May 1, 2026
+$333
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
No · entry 27% · closed Sep 9, 2026
−$5,805
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
No · entry 62% · closed Apr 4, 2026
−$4,194
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 88% · closed Sep 13, 2026
−$1,270
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Yes · entry 21% · closed Jul 1, 2026
−$1,188
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 66% · closed Oct 22, 2026
−$533
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 88% · closed Sep 12, 2026
−$450
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 48% · closed Oct 8, 2026
−$435
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
No · entry 44% · closed Oct 21, 2026
−$359
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 91% · closed Oct 7, 2026
−$298
Kash Patel out by April 30?
Yes · entry 17% · closed May 30, 2026
−$270
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
No · entry 36%, now 37% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$5,147
+$71 P&L
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 6%, now 15% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,772
+$2,785 P&L
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 5%, now 11% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,427
+$2,317 P&L
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 21%, now 18% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,071
−$662 P&L
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 5%, now 9% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,551
+$1,716 P&L
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes · entry 54%, now 35% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,444
−$1,946 P&L
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 87%, now 87% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,915
+$22 P&L
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
No · entry 60%, now 90% · ends Jan 4, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,731
+$913 P&L
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 2%, now 9% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,579
+$1,924 P&L
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 2%, now 2% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,032
+$166 P&L
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 3%, now 7% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,651
+$790 P&L
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 2%, now 5% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,559
+$1,058 P&L
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
No · entry 55%, now 91% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,507
+$597 P&L
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes · entry 63%, now 97% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,458
+$511 P&L
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Yes · entry 14%, now 6% · ends Mar 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,172
−$1,919 P&L
Recent trades
Sold Yes at 66%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Sold Yes at 16%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 6%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Bought No at 84%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought No at 83%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Bought Yes at 5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought Yes at 5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought Yes at 5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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