Instructive-Friction
0xc54d…8be1 · Joined February 15, 2026
Instructive-Friction has made $7,070 in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #19,885 all time by profit, with 259K shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Nov 1, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$7,070
- All-time volume (shares)
- 259K
- Portfolio value
- $2,347
- Profit this month
- +$7,905
- Win rate (last 320 settled)
- 40%
If you had copied Instructive-Friction
What $100 would be worth now if you had mirrored every position Instructive-Friction opened, in proportion to their stakes. Positions still open are valued at today's price.
Last 30 days
$100 → $121
+21% across 904 positions, 40% in profit. Best +$3,224, worst −$826.
Last 90 days
$100 → $121
+21% across 904 positions, 40% in profit. Best +$3,224, worst −$826.
Hindsight, not a forecast: it assumes you got the same prices as Instructive-Friction, with no fees, slippage or delay. See how we calculate it and how other top traders compare.
Copy this trader on Polymarket (affiliate link)How Instructive-Friction has traded
Polymarket lists 320 settled positions for this wallet with activity since Oct 31, 2026. Of them, 127 (40%) ended in profit and 193 in a loss, for a net +$1,046 in profit and loss. The simple average entry price on them was 39%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 245 of the 320 are about sports, judging by keywords in the market titles. Positions on markets that have not ended are not counted above. Of the 7 largest positions on markets that have not ended, listed below and worth $728 together, the biggest is “Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 56.5” (Under) at 56% of that value.
How we count: a position is one outcome of one market. It is settled when the trader sold or redeemed it, or when its market resolved while the trader still held it; Polymarket keeps listing that last kind as open until it is redeemed, so we read those too (187 of the 320 here). Positions that cost under $1, ones that ended exactly even and ones on markets still running are left out, and each position is dated by its last activity. Profit is Polymarket's own figure per position. Computed by WhaleSays from public Polymarket data; it describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
The largest profits across this wallet's history: positions it sold or redeemed, and ones on markets that settled in its favor and are not redeemed yet.
Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: Al Ittihad Saudi Club O/U 1.5
Under · entry 3% · closed Oct 30, 2026
+$3,224
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Yes · entry 56% · closed Feb 27, 2026
+$1,157
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
Yes · entry 38% · closed Mar 24, 2026
+$936
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
Yes · entry 52% · closed Feb 28, 2026
+$930
Spread: Al Ittihad Saudi Club (-1.5)
Abha Saudi Club · entry 41% · closed Oct 30, 2026
+$868
Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 5.5
Over · entry 24% · closed Oct 29, 2026
+$849
Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 1.5
Over · entry 60% · closed Oct 30, 2026
+$840
Jeonnam Dragons vs. Seongnam Ilhwa: Jeonnam Dragons 1st Half O/U 0.5
Over · entry 5% · closed Nov 1, 2026
+$787
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score in First Half
No · entry 44% · closed Oct 29, 2026
+$645
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
Yes · entry 37% · closed Mar 1, 2026
+$598
Biggest losses
The largest losses across this wallet's history, including markets that settled against it and were never redeemed (Polymarket lists those as open, not closed).
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?
Yes · entry 57% · closed Jul 13, 2026
−$1,136
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Yes · entry 67% · closed Jul 13, 2026
−$1,028
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes · entry 20% · closed Mar 4, 2026
−$1,000
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
No · entry 80% · closed Mar 20, 2026
−$867
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5
Over · entry 51% · market settled, not redeemed
−$826
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Over · entry 57% · market settled, not redeemed
−$688
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
Over · entry 45% · market settled, not redeemed
−$616
Nuggets vs. Suns
Suns · entry 34% · market settled, not redeemed
−$506
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
Over · entry 47% · closed Nov 1, 2026
−$467
Exact Score: Galatasaray SK 2 - 1 Fenerbahçe SK?
No · entry 71% · market settled, not redeemed
−$315
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 40.5
Under · entry 67%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$1,111
+$364 P&L
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 56.5
Under · entry 60%, now 89% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$409
+$134 P&L
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 49%, now 59% · ends Dec 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$127
+$21 P&L
Danubio FC vs. Club Nacional de Football: Danubio FC O/U 0.5
Over · entry 37%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$105
+$66 P&L
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 27%, now 33% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$95
+$15 P&L
Cusco FC vs. Sport Boys Association: O/U 0.5
Over · entry 94%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$94
+$6 P&L
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5
Over · entry 72%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$90
+$25 P&L
SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 1.5
Under · entry 80%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$49
+$10 P&L
Exact Score: SE Palmeiras 1 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama?
No · entry 89%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$46
+$5 P&L
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5
Over · entry 31%, now 25% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$42
−$12 P&L
Spread: Steelers (-19.5)
Steelers · entry 84%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$35
+$6 P&L
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 48.5
Under · entry 71%, now 59% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Spread: Raiders (-3.5)
Raiders · entry 78%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$22
+$5 P&L
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
Cowboys · entry 65%, now 59% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Spread: Valencia CF (-5.5)
UE Tavernes · entry 43%, now 50% · ends Nov 10, 2026
Recent trades
Bought Browns at 3%
Spread: Steelers (-20.5)
Bought Steelers at 93%
Spread: Steelers (-19.5)
Bought Browns at 5%
Spread: Steelers (-20.5)
Bought Over at 33%
Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5
Bought Over at 33%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5
Bought Over at 28%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5
Bought Under at 60%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 56.5
Bought Steelers at 28%
Spread: Steelers (-19.5)
Bought Under at 9%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5
Bought Over at 72%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5
Bought Cowboys at 65%
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
Bought Cowboys at 65%
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
Bought Raiders at 78%
Spread: Raiders (-3.5)
Bought Over at 30%
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 34.5
Bought Under at 67%
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 40.5
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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